This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly eBook: Carmen M. Reinhart, Kenneth S. Rogoff: diadurchgakiddto.gq: Kindle Store. Editorial Reviews. Review. Two top-notch economists provide a clear and interesting Advanced Search. Kindle Store · Kindle eBooks · Business & Money . With this breakthrough study, leading economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff definitively prove them wrong. Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, leading economists whose work has been influential in the policy debate concerning the current financial crisis, provocatively.
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Read "This Time Is Different Eight Centuries of Financial Folly" by Carmen M. Reinhart available from Rakuten Kobo. Sign up today and get $5. This time is different: eight centuries of financial folly. [Carmen M Reinhart; Kenneth S Rogoff] -- An empirical investigation of financial crises during the last This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly - Ebook written by Carmen M. Reinhart, Kenneth S. Rogoff. Read this book using Google Play Books.
Competition for profit leads lenders to take on dangerous and ultimately deadly levels of risk, even to serial defaulting sovereigns.
Another message is that memory assets depreciate over time, leading regulators to discount the past as a guide to future pain. This provides anecdotal support for the idea that there are Kondratieff waves of years in economic time series.
A technical suggestion: Figure A more sensitive chart might plot changes as a percentage of the room to shift. The authors have compiled one of the most comprehensive records of the various types of financial folly from hyperinflation to banking crises that I have ever seen.
These records are in and of themselves valuable for policymakers to remind them to avoid the "this time is different" syndrome. The authors analyze the data in a broad macroeconomic way to point out when a particular financial crisis might occur. For example, they conclude that the massive influx of foreign capital into the United States prior to the current financial crisis should have been a warning flag to policymakers.
From a broad prescriptive perspective, they suggest that international organizations should have better access to national economic data as well as publishing same. They lament the lack of transparency that national governments have with regard to their financial data.
They further suggest that international organizations should have more power to regulate the financial affairs of nations.
Although skimpy in terms of prescriptive detail, i. Account Options Sign in. My library Help Advanced Book Search. Princeton University Press site. This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly.
Carmen M. Reinhart , Kenneth S.
User Review - Flag as inappropriate Yes, this is not an easy read in the sense that the authors write for a lay audience. The book is certainly a monument to empirical insights, but I don't want to oversell it. First, perhaps as befits an empirical economics text, this book is almost exclusively composed of graphs, tables, and the textual interpretation of both of those. These do provide an almost inexhaustible source of new findings and hypotheses, but if that's not your bag don't go near this book though the the authors do make a real effort to make the results comprehensible even to an economic layperson.
Also, much of this statistical work is barely interpreted but often just presented in numerical form. Conclusions drawn from it can seem a little hasty. Also, although the authors emphasize the "eight centuries of financial folly," the book overwhelmingly focuses on the past years, and especially the last , so its not quite as comprehensive as some have said.
This is due more to the nature of the evidence than the authors' efforts, but it is an important qualifier. Ultimately, these quibbles can be only that. This is undoubtedly one of the most important works of economic history of the past decade, and will and should be read by anyone who cares about the impact of global finance on the world and its people.
Be that as it may, the book still provides generic findings about the financial cycle that are still valid. It is a cogent analysis of hundreds of years of financials crises.
Contrary to what the Fed continuously repeats, it is possible to predict financial cycles and this book proves it by examining how bubbles have burst since the invention of money. It provides an excellent explanation of the predictab Another reviewer pointed out that some of the analysis in the book is based on faulty data.
It provides an excellent explanation of the predictability of the cycle, briefly stated, deregulation allowing looser lending, ballooning lending and leveraging causing a bubble that eventually bursts, and the economic chaos caused afterwards as asset prices e.
It will help to have some academic knowledge of statistical methods to make sense of much of the analysis, although you can easily bypass the analysis and read the conclusions.
This book really opened my eyes to the foolishness of banks, businesses, investors and governments with respect to their borrowing.